Genesis Mining profitability calculation – What to expect from your Hash Power

Update:
DO NOT sign up for Genesis! They’ve ended all of my contracts because they where “not profitable” (you don’t say?!) and asked for even more money to keep them alive!
So at the end my “lifetime contracts” didn’t even last 10 month!

DO NOT BUY! You have been warned!

I’m using Genesis Mining since more than a year now. At their last BTC pre-sale back in October 2017, I’ve purchased more additional BTC hash power, that went “live” in March 2018.
Of course I did my profitability calculations before. I used several different calculations and put this against the costs (several thousand Euro!).

Now 4 month later I have to say that the payouts never even came close to any of the profitability mining calculations. Even worse, the profit is also decreasing heavily from month to month.
To give you some numbers: The daily payout that I receive today (June 2018) is only 15% of the profit that the mining calculators are predicting!

So I contacted Genesis Mining support to ask whats going on.
I’ve got following reply and my ticket has been closed instantly without giving the chance of further discussion.

Hi XXX,
thank You for contacting us.

Unfortunately return on investment is difficult to predict.

Payouts mostly vary depending on these two factors, plus how much luck we have in the pools we are mining in:

1. Your payouts may decrease over time because the lower the BTC drops versus USD, the higher your maintenance fee will be, in practice. This is because we charge a fixed maintenance fee in USD (new contracts = USD 0.00014 per GH/s per day), but we deduct it from your payout in BTC.

2. Also, it may happen that due to the lower payouts, the global interest in mining BTC diminishes. This would mean a decrease in the mining difficulty, which will also have a positive impact on increasing your payouts. Find a difficulty evolution graph here: https://bitcoinwisdom.com/bitcoin/difficulty
Again, if difficulty raises, your payout would decrease.

3. The luck factor is also relevant, and it depends on the performance of the pools we are mining in.
In any case, none of these factors depends on Genesis Mining, nor can we foresee how are they going to evolve in the near future.

So, therefore, we recommend all our clients to do their own research and do their own profitability calculation. For example, you might want to have a look at http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency
Please note that the website is an independent source of reference and not related to Genesis Mining in any way. Just set on sha256 the GHs and set Watts and $/kWh to zero – the result will be estimated and without any fee.
Just keep in mind that returns are not guaranteed or may not even be accurate. And any calculation is the result at one moment in time.

Here are the instructions on how to perform calculation using http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency
1. Choose an algorithm (unmark the rest)
2. Enter the amount of hashrate in GH/s box (1 TH/s is 1000 GH/s)
3. Set Watts and $/kWh to 0
4. Press ‘Calculate Profitability’
5. Scroll to the desired coin and look under Revenue /Profit (per day)
6. Deduct the maintenance fee from that result.
Maintenance fee for sha256 is USD 0.00028 per GH/s per day

Please note that the coinwarz.com is an independent source of reference and it is not related to Genesis Mining in any manner.
Just keep in mind that returns are not guaranteed or may not even be accurate. And any calculation is the result at one moment in time.

Hope this was helpful.
For any further questions that are not related to this matter, please, submit a new ticket with your query.

Best regards,
XXX
Genesis Mining Customer Service

Note that in point 3 they recommend to use the calculator at http://www.coinwarz.com/cryptocurrency
If I follow the steps, the calculator even gives a higher profit than the calculator I was using before back in October 2017.

So let’s do a little example calculation.
Today you can buy at Genesis 10TH/s for $2800
According to Coinwarz mining calculator, you can expect a daily payout of: 0.0004 BTC, that is $3.10 today
But Genesis Mining only pays you around 0.00005 BTC a day, that is only $0.31 and includes the daily maintenance fee.

So in order to get your initial investment back, you have to mine at the same rate for 9032 days!
But your mining contract is only for the duration of 5 years (1825 days). After 5 years you could have mined in theory 0.09 BTC what is today $563.
Even if BTC price goes back to $20000 that would be a payout of only $1800.

-> Not taking into account increased BTC value and increased mining difficulty that will result in decreasing BTC payout over time.

With only 15% of predicted BTC payout your investment will hardly ever reach profitability. Maybe if BTC will be sky rocking again some day, but not at current situation.

Would I do it again?
If the payout was even somewhere near the prediction of the mining calculators, yes.
With the lousy level of payout of the last 4 month, no.

Hope my posting will help you to decide wisely and if you like, please feel free to share this on social media.

Thanks!

Edit:
I’ve added following screenshot to give you some real numbers. As you can see, Genesis Mining payout is now only 5%(!!!) of the predicted mining profitability of two independent calculators using today’s difficulty and BTC price!
That’s ridiculous and will never come near ROI.

Update:
DO NOT sign up for Genesis! They’ve ended all of my contracts because they where “not profitable” (you don’t say?!) and asked for even more money to keep them alive!
So at the end my “lifetime contracts” didn’t even last 10 month!

DO NOT BUY! You have been warned!